Hopes are fading for a quick resolution of Niger’s coup or the potential use of force by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to free Nigerien president Mohammed Bazoum and restore him to power
Hopes are fading for a quick resolution of Niger’s coup or the potential use of force by the Economic Community of West African States to free Nigerien president Mohammed Bazoum and restore him to power.
An attack on the French embassy in Niamey was followed by a daily protest in support of the coup. The size of the protest increased daily.Niger shares a border with seven countries in the region, four of which are members of Ecowas. Of those four, Mali and Burkina Faso have been suspended due to similar coups d'etat.
My view is that the unwillingness of Nigeria’s politicians to support military intervention, coupled with growing local support for the junta in Niger, will make the use of force almost impossible. This leaves Ecowas with little or no option than to pursue a diplomatic resolution. Second, politicians in Nigeria and Ghana fear that any military intervention would result in human catastrophe, which would further destabilise the region. Politicians from Nigeria argue that any war in Niger will have a serious impact on northern Nigeria, a region that is already strained by insurgency.
A military intervention in Niger which could result in a full blown war would embolden terrorist groups. It will also result in soldiers previously fighting side by side against terrorist groups now fighting against each other.
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