Trump’s margin of victory there in 2020 was less than half what it was in 2016, and that was before his coup attempt and his indictments.
as their 2024 nominee and wind up losing North Carolina for the first time since 2008, activists like Camilla Zapolsky will be a big reason why.
Zapolsky’s promise to vote for an incarcerated Trump was extreme even by the standards of a party convention where he was the most popular, by far, of the three 2024 candidates who appeared. Some 1,000 Republicans paid $150 each for tickets to Trump’s dinner, compared to about 900 who paid $150 for a DeSantis dinner and 600 who paid $75 each for a Pence luncheon.
The turnout numbers from 2020 tell a story that should have Republicans in the state alarmed. From 2016 to 2020, Democratic turnout increased 7 percentage points, while Republican and independent turnout increased 6 percentage points. Trump nevertheless saw his margin of victory drop from 3.6% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2020 — suggesting that small but significant slices of independents and even Republicans who supported Trump in 2016 moved to Biden.
Joshua Smith, the chair of the Pender County Republican Party, said the new federal indictment accusing Trump of withholding secret military and intelligence documents and then conspiring to hide them from authorities would actually help Trump, like his April indictment in New York City for falsifying business records to hide hush money paid to a porn star. Smith wondered, though, whether there might eventually be a cumulative effect.
Arrayed against that, though, are the legions of loyal Trump supporters who have no interest in approaching the primary choices strategically. Many further continue to believe Trump’s claim — repeatedly proven false — that the 2020 election had been stolen from him. “These people wholeheartedly think Trump is the man, and that he is able to win,” she said. “A lot of people in my circle feel like he deserves a second term.
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