But the state is unlikely to regain its AAA credit rating with S&P Global until the second half of the decade.
But the analyst said the state needed to focus on debt levels if it was to restore its credit rating with the agency which is more bearish on the NSW economy than its two largest competitors.
The ratings agency uses a broader accounting measure than the government for NSW accounts, which also includes public non-financial outfits such as the State Transit Authority and consolidates government-owned enterprises. Despite the different measures, the analyst said he expected the government could also reveal a better-than-expected outlook in the upcoming budget.
The NSW opposition has pointed out underspending by the government relative to budget expectations, particularly on large infrastructure projects. As of April, the government was well short of its forecasts on infrastructure spending with capital expenditure of $15 billion for the first 10 months of the year, on an initial full-year estimate of $23 billion.
The government remains tight-lipped on where the deficit will be by the end of the financial year. Opposition estimates expect a final figure of between $10 billion and $14 billion.
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