The warning came as Morgan Stanley calculated Origin’s gross earnings could rise by $650 million in 2025-26 due to the extension of its huge coal power station.
Origin Energy stands to increase gross earnings by about $650 million in 2025-26 if its huge Eraring coal power generator remains open, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, in findings that may play into the terms of a deal expected to be struck with the NSW government to extend its life.
Mr Koh’s estimate is a theoretical one that assumes coal prices at the current cap of $125 a tonne, and wholesale prices around current levels for the financial 2026 year. But in reality there is considerable uncertainty on what those prices will actually be then.that the price cap on thermal coal will end on June 30, 2024 – after which royalty rates on coal will be increased – underlines that uncertainty.
The uncertainty on future commodity prices – both coal and wholesale electricity – will be one of the main factors that the agreement will have to handle, said Tony Wood, energy program director at the Grattan Institute.A deal will also be complicated by uncertainty over how long the plant is needed for, given that will depend on the progress of building replacement generation and transmission, as well as other factors.
In a further move to beef up the NSW power grid during the energy transition, the Minns government will on Thursday earmark $1 billion from its upcoming budget to set up a new Energy Security Corporation.The new entity will make investments in assets such as community batteries and “virtual power plants” that allow households to pool energy from rooftop solar and cut their power bills.
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