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Polls showed Joe Biden, right, holding double-digit leads over Donald Trump, left, in the run-up to the 2020 election, but he won election by only 4.5 percentage points. . They misfired in one way or another in the past three presidential elections. And yet the prevalence of election polls is undiminished. Thirteen months before the 2024 election, polls are many – and inescapable.Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S.
A cartoon published two weeks before the 1948 election, in which Dewey was expected to win the presidency by a wide margin – but didn’t., an American news magazine published weekly from 1890 to 1938, conducted massive mail-in polls early in the 20th century and built what was widely called an “uncanny” record for predicting presidential elections accurately – until it
Polls command attention because they “give the public and the candidates some inkling of the electorate’s thinking,” as media critic Jack Shafer hasbloated fields of presidential candidates, most of whom have no chance of being nominated. Both parties in recent years haveThe 2024 presidential election campaign has offered a historically unusual reason to pay attention to the polls, even ones this early.
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