EXCLUSIVE: Surging Omicron infections will crash the health system unless some restrictions occur, Doherty Institute modelling predicts, with Australia on track to hit 200,000 cases a day by the end of January.
Surging Omicron infections will overwhelm the health system unless some restrictions return, according to modelling prepared for national cabinet that also recommends bringing coronavirus vaccine boosters forward.
It assumes only baseline public health safety measures – no stay-at-home-orders, low density requirements, no retail restrictions, schools open – and the partial test, trace, isolate and quarantine responses of a strained contact tracing system.The modelling also assumes that, in addition to being much more transmissible than the Delta variant, Omicron causes equally severe disease, stating that “all international modelling groups are using this conservative assumption”.
The modelling has been given to federal, state and territory leaders ahead of their national cabinet meeting on Wednesday to discuss boosters and public health measures.
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