Political analyst says rise of One Nation is ushering in a 'radically new world electorally' as traditional major parties' dominance erodes. Polls suggest One Nation would win more primary votes than Labor and is 'eviscerating' the Coalition. Shift may lead to new alliances and a third of seats no longer contested between Labor and Coalition.
“They’ve completely dominated Australian politics going back to 1910,” he says of Labor and the various versions of the Coalition that have controlled the centre-right.
“Now barely command half of the vote between them. ” “This moves us into a radically new world electorally … We are in an electoral universe that is utterly unrecognisable from the one that we’ve lived in all our lives. ” Bowe sat down for an interview with 7NEWS podcast The Issue as Pauline Hanson stepped up campaign fundraising. The One Nation leader made high profile visits to Perth and Melbourne.
“I’m not that little woman that came out of the fish and chip shop. I’m smarter. I’m wiser. I’m up to their dirty tricks,” she told her Melbourne crowd.
“There is this underground movement that’s happening. People saying, ‘we’ve had enough. We’ve had a gutful. We want change’.
”Recent polling suggests she is right. The latest Newspoll confirms earlier surveys that suggested, in an election now, One Nation would win a larger primary vote than Labor, let alone its rival on the right, the Coalition.
“While One Nation taking a chunk out of Labor support, they are eviscerating the Coalition,” he said. But the scale of the change implied in the polls is enough to terrify those who relied on the dominance of two old rivals. It may be that the new kid on the block, One Nation, falls into line in a way that makes sense.
Bowe sees a likelihood that One Nation joins - and maybe even leads - the old Coalition of the Liberals and Nationals. Credit: AAP Left of the political centre, he expects Labor will look to the Greens if and when its support sinks to the point where a 76-seat result in the House of Representatives - the smallest election majority - is beyond it.
“Very few seats are going to be structured along the usual model of Labor versus coalition in two party terms. ”Bowe expects it will be “about a third of the seats. The other two thirds in this new world. ”You can catch more of
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