Opinion: If you think you understand the economy, you’re not paying attention
By Robert J. Samuelson Robert J. Samuelson Columnist focusing on economics Bio Columnist April 3 at 12:28 PM If you think you understand what’s going on with the global economy, you’re probably not paying attention.
For the moment, the economy can’t seem to make up its mind. Uneasy about the economy’s strength, many economists have downgraded their forecasts. Just recently, the Federal Reserve suspended interest-rate increases, fearing they might derail the recovery. Meanwhile, stock indexes are trading near historical highs.
Economist Karen Dynan of Peterson attributes most of the U.S. slowdown to the waning effect of the Trump administration’s 2017 tax cut. Other recent economic indicators signal weakness. A Paychex/IHS survey of small businesses showed a decline in hiring during March after two months of no job growth.
“The rise in global debt slowed sharply in 2018,” says a new report from the Institute of International Finance . In 2017, worldwide debt increased by a staggering $21 trillion, according to the report. Last year, the increase was a much smaller $3.3 trillion. “This slowdown was mainly driven by Europe and China,” the report notes.
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