Daniel Andrews used modelling based on information from Tony Blakely and others. Here's what he thinks about the road map | OPINION
Listening to the announcement of the Victorian road map last week was widely anticipated, and harrowing, for all Victorians.Luis Enrique Ascui
The major task we were given was hard – modelling the step down from something like stage three to stage two. What should the targets be?Our modelling suggested that releasing from stage three to stage two at an average of 25 cases a day over the past 14 days would result in a 62 per cent probability of a third wave by Christmas.
We all do it. You flick the switch and you are 99.99 per cent sure the light will come on. You listen to the weather forecast and you are 70 per cent sure the clothes you hang out on the line will be dry by the time the afternoon showers arrive.My declarations declared, what do I make of the road map? Eight out of nine; very good.
Jumping to the back end, the triggers to go to stage one and stage zero at first glance look tough. Is it elimination by stealth? Yes and no. You would only go into these near-normal and pre-COVID stages if one was on the cusp of, or actually achieving, elimination of community transmission.So, after thinking it through, they make sense. Although the hard reality is that the chance of us achieving elimination is remote.
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