Outclassed: How simple math predicts dark days ahead for Senate Democrats

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Outclassed: How simple math predicts dark days ahead for Senate Democrats
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Democrats are in a fragile position heading into 2024 despite managing to outperform expectations during the 2022 midterm elections and secure a one-seat majority in the Senate.

There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans. The circumstances put Republicans in a strong position to flip some crucial seats that could easily shift the current balance of power in the upper chamber.Here’s a breakdown of the 2024 Senate battlefield and what Democrats must face as they seek to defend their slim majority.

Democrats must also defend five other seats the Cook Political Report has rated as “lean Democratic,” including Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Three of those — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are also key presidential battleground states that Biden narrowly won in 2020 after flipping them to blue.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced earlier this month that she would not seek reelection in 2024, opening up a seat in Michigan that she has held since 2001. As more Democrats in battleground states mull retirement, the likelihood increases that Republicans can flip key seats.

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