Trump's biggest headwind heading into 2020 is his impeachment. His biggest tailwind is the economy
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Trump’s poll numbers versus his top Democratic rivals have also not taken any significant hits from the year’s long drama surrounding his presidency. He remains competitive in swing states he won in 2016. GDP growth in the last two quarters came in close to 2%. The drag from lackluster corporate investment is now “largely gone,” Gruenwald says. The labor market remains strong thanks to tax cuts and regulatory rollback, not to mention trade uncertainty causing at least a handful of manufacturers to either build at home or opt out of outsourcing abroad for the time being.
Trump inherited a more benign economy. He has delivered on his economic promises to make the country an easier, cheaper place to do business, all the while serving up protectionist policies for blue-collar labor.The bounce in financial markets in the past two months, including a positive slope in the yield curv a precursor to recession—has S&P reducing their recession probability for 2020 by five percentage points. There’s now a 25% to 30% chance of 2020 ending with economic contraction.
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