The ABC can reveal the results of YouGov's latest MRP model, which finds the Peter Dutton-led Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats if an election was held today.
The results of pollster YouGov's latest MRP model suggest the Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats, with a lower estimate of 65 and upper estimate of 80, if a federal election was held today.
The model is not a forecast of the election result, but it lays out where the imminent election campaign will be most hotly contested. The median result would see Labor lose 15 seats to the Coalition, including heartland seats such as Werriwa, which it has held for more than 90 years. A model using the same technique that YouGov published before the last election underestimated the support of independent and Greens candidates.YouGov estimates Labor's current primary vote is at 29.1 per cent, which if replicated on polling day would be the party's lowest first-preference vote since Labor split in the 1930s.
The poll suggests that Labor's seat losses could include a swathe of seats in the outer regions of capital cities. In Melbourne, there appears to be a fierce battle underway for the marginal seat of Chisholm and the outer-north seat of McEwen.
Peter Dutton Opinion Poll Yougov Election Federal Date Majority Minority Government
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