Predictive power of climatemodels may be masked by volcanoes AtmosNews ScienceAdvances
, farmers, water managers, and others with critical climate information that allows them to plan years in advance.
For the study, Wu and her colleagues relied on two parallel collections of climate simulations from the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble, a dataset produced using the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model. These simulations were run as hindcasts and cover the years from 1954–2015, allowing scientists to compare the simulations with what really occurred and evaluate their skill at predicting the future.that occurred during the study period: Agung , El Chichón , and Pinatubo .
For example, the simulations that included the volcanoes predicted a subsequent cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific after the eruptions. In reality, that region of the ocean warmed, a change that was well predicted by the simulations that did not include the volcanic eruptions.
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