The shock injury to Mitchell Moses has amplified the pressure on Nathan Cleary, with NSW's entire kicking game now falling on his shoulders. Queensland can now focus on shutting down Cleary, and the Maroons will be hoping to disrupt his game with a combination of kick pressure and defensive tactics.
The shock injury that has ruled Mitchell Moses out of Wednesday night's State of Origin opener has only amplified the pressure on Nathan Cleary . It means Cleary has effectively become NSW 's entire kicking game .
That is the undeniable significance of Moses' withdrawal that has been largely understated. Cameron Munster, Sam Walker, Kalyn Ponga, and Harry Grant all regularly handle general play kicking duties at club level. And while none individually have the kicking game to match Cleary one-on-one, it still allows Queensland to kick from multiple angles. The fact is James Tedesco rarely kicks for the Roosters.
And while Ethan Strange's strength is clearly his running game, he is still largely a back-up option when it comes to the Raiders' game management. For instance, in Strange's most recent clash against Cleary's Panthers, the five-eighth finished with just two kicks for 33 metres. It puts in perspective how NSW's entire kicking duties now fall on Cleary's shoulders.
And the scary part for the Blues is that we have already seen the blueprint of how to disrupt Cleary this season at club level. Back in round six, the Bulldogs produced a masterclass in how to pressure Penrith's champion halfback. They rushed after Cleary all night coming from the inside and out, and it left the usually unflappable 'Ice Man' second-guessing himself.
That performance would have been studied closely by Billy Slater, who no doubt would have come up with his own additional plan of how to potentially magnify the pressure at Origin level. Because the Maroons can now almost completely focus on shutting down Cleary at the end of every set. You can almost guarantee that wave after wave of kick pressure will be going after Cleary from the kick off until the final hooter. Debate won't go until Cleary dominates.
It will be fascinating to see how referee Ashley Klein polices the kick pressure given how heavily playmakers are protected at club level. But how Cleary handles the added pressure of not having Moses to share the kicking responsibilities could have a significant impact on the result. As Cooper Cronk likes to say, Origin has always been about handling the chaos better than the opposition.
And while Cleary has dominated club football for years because he usually controls his emotions better than anyone, he has not had near the same success at Origin level. Queensland will now be hoping history repeats itself with Sam Walker whose style of play is often likened to Allan Langer. But while Walker's attacking brilliance is undeniable, the jury is well and truly out on whether his defence can withstand the blowtorch of Origin.
Strange has a reputation as one of the game's most destructive tackle-busting five-eighths for good reason - and he will no doubt go out with the intention of trying to trample his lightweight opponent at every opportunity. It gets even tougher for Walker when you throw in the running power of Strange's Raiders teammate Hudson Young, and the enormous frame of Stephen Crichton outside him.
The fact Billy Slater seriously considered moving Kalyn Ponga into the halves before ultimately settling on Walker only reinforces the obvious concern. In an interview on NRL 360 last week, Ponga himself admitted discussions took place with Slater before the side was finalised, after whispers emerged at Magic Round that suggested Slater was strongly considering switching Ponga into the halves. Which is why veteran forward Kurt Capewell is expected to play bodyguard role on Walker's right edge.
While Walker's attack has the potential to win Queensland the game, his defence will be just as crucial to the result. Fonua-Blake's enormous frame has the potential to be a game-changer at Origin - but it also comes with significant risks. At 123kg, the Cronulla enforcer is officially the equal-heaviest player in the NRL, putting him alongside young Brisbane giant Xavier Willison.
To put that into perspective, Queensland starting props Tom Flegler and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui give away significant weight despite being man mountains themselves. Whether those weights are up to date, we are exactly sure. But it still doesn't change whether Fonua-Blake's enormous frame becomes a weapon at Origin - or a liability. At his best, Fonua-Blake has been one of the most agile and destructive big men in the game for some years now
Nathan Cleary Mitchell Moses NSW Queensland State Of Origin Kicking Game Pressure Sam Walker Ethan Strange Billy Slater Fonua-Blake NRL
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