Analysis: What happens in the early states, where Joe Biden is trailing, offers clues about how the nomination might turn out.
In 2000, Vice President Al Gore ran with the full support of his boss, Bill Clinton, which helped clear the Democratic field — except for former Sen. Bill Bradley. When Gore won a sweeping victory in Iowa and held off a late Bradley charge in New Hampshire, the race was effectively over. Gore remains the only Democrat in the modern era to win every primary and caucus in a contested nomination race.Carter and Gore were stronger front-runners, and held polling leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
But if Biden can somehow pull out a win in one of the first two states, Mondale's example becomes quite encouraging for him. This is because of the other key difference: Biden, so far, has faced less competition for the black vote than Mondale did. A December 1983 Gallup poll put Mondale not far behind Jackson among black voters, 36 to 27 percent.
But when she lost the Iowa caucuses , the ground shifted dramatically. At first, Clinton looked poised to suffer another loss in New Hampshire, threatening to end her candidacy. Instead, she pulled out a surprise victory, thanks to aShe then won Nevada, too, but Obama's Iowa breakthrough had altered the fundamentals of the race. This became clear when South Carolina's primary results came in. Obama had been expected to win, but his margin — almost 30 points — was shocking.
That's a lot of questions, but it's the great unknowable that makes 2016 so fascinating to look back at now. Clinton won the nomination handily, but she almost lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. If you believe her South Carolina support would have held despite earlier defeats, then you're probably bullish on Biden's chances of absorbing back-to-back losses to start the primary season and still winning the nomination.
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