Over the past 75 years, Punxsutawney Phil has correctly predicted whether there will be an early spring 69% of the time, according to an Axios analysis of NOAA data.
Data: NOAA; Note: 10, 25, and 75 year periods are calculated from 2013, 1998, and 1948 to 2022; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
Over the long run, Phil is fairly accurate. It’s high time to vindicate Phil and let his record shine!Past analyses have slighted Phil by either including fairly few years of data, analyzing the U.S. as a whole, or being very generous as to their definition of an early spring. We defined an early spring as one that’s significantly warmer — by one standard deviation — than the average of the previous 30 years.Axios on facebook
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