Russian leader’s speech marks biggest escalation of Ukraine war, and raises fears of unprecedented disaster
“Putin’s statements go beyond the Russian nuclear doctrine, which only suggests Russian first use in a conventional war when the very existence of the state is threatened,” said Andrey Baklitskiy,senior researcher in the Weapons of Mass Destruction and other Strategic Weapons Programme at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.
Ukraine, which has been making rapid military gains over the past few weeks, has stressed that it will continue its efforts to liberate occupied lands, with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, stating on Wednesday that referendums will “act step by step to liberate our country”.Baklitskiy said the concept floated by Putin of “territorial integrity” was “tricky” given that Russia was planning to absorb four Ukrainian regions, where heavy fighting is taking place. “What would it mean if Ukraine retook the territory Russia considers its own and Putin did not use nuclear weapons in response?” Baklitskiy added. “Coming from the person who has the sole decision-making power regarding Russian nuclear weapons, this will have to be taken seriously.” Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics, also said Putin’s nuclear threats were unprecedented but questioned whether the Russian leader was willing to go through with his threats, which would de facto mean nuclear war. “It’s glib to assume anyone claiming they are not bluffing is bluffing, but the credibility of a threat to risk thermonuclear Armageddon if Ukrainian forces continue to move in territories still Ukrainian by law is questionable.” Instead, Galeotti argued, the apocalyptic threats could have been intended to force the west and Ukraine into accepting Russia’s territorial gains in the war. Zelenskiy, in an interview with the German newspaper Bild on Wednesday, likewise said he did not believe Putin would use nuclear weapons. “I don’t think the world will allow him to use those weapons,” he said. The Ukrainian leader, however, did not rule out the possibility of a Russian nuclear strike, saying “we can’t look into Putin’s head”. For millions of Russians, the most worrying takeaway from Putin’s speech will be that they and their loved ones could soon be fighting and dying for their president’s illusory aims. Since the start of the war, Putin has sought to shield his population from the realities of the war, with the Kremlin eager to cultivate a sense of normality on the streets of Moscow and other major cities. Many responded to these efforts, with polls consistentlyBut with the decision to announce the first mobilisation since the second world war and the call-up of 300,000 mostly young Russians, this unwritten social contract has now been annulled, and the war will be entering the households of thousands of families across the country.Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you through the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morningNewsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our
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