Explainer: Putin is massing troops on the Ukraine border. How likely is war | Sherryn_G chrizap
The message flashed across screens at the Ukrainian government offices, as days of peace talks between Russia and the West hit an impasse: “Be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future.”
Officially, Russia has denied it intends to invade while the US and the UK are already sending weapons to Ukraine. To Putin, Ukraine is still part of Russia and it cannot fall to the West. For much of eastern Europe, it’s also a red line. If Russia reclaims one ex-Soviet state, will it come for them next?
The Kremlin, long fearful of what Russia expert Dr Robert Horvath calls “revolution contagion”, acted fast. Within days, Putin’s “little green men” were invading Crimea in unmarked tanks. Moscow installed a Russian politician as head of the new “republic” to force through a stage-managed referendum to separate from Ukraine . Both Crimea and breakaway rebel provinces in the east held by pro-Russian separatists have become international no-fly zones.
“The history of Russia is the history of imperial expansion,” says the ANU’s Kyle Wilson, a former diplomat to Moscow. Four years later, NATO declared its intent to bring Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova into the fold and Moscow said a red line had been crossed. Russia now has “nowhere further to retreat to”, Putin has complained. “Do they think we’ll just sit idly by?”
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