ANALYSIS: Putin's 'Catherine the Great' move puts the world on notice
Writing in Foreign Affairs journal in 1994, in the shadow of the fall of the Soviet Union, former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski warned the biggest question was: What is Russia?He saw then an effort by Moscow to maintain leverage over former Soviet states. Most ominous, he said, was "Moscow's economic and military pressure on Kiev".
Ukraine is where it all comes together for Putin: identity, territory, history. To Brzezinski's question — empire or democracy? — Putin would say empire.The spectre of great power politics looms over the 21st century. It turns on two issues: identity and status. After World War II the vanquished Germany and Japan sought to remake themselves in the image of Western democracy.But if the international order is weak, rising powers will seek to exploit that weakness, potentially sparking conflict.
China and Russia have sought status through mobility and creativity; hosting major events such as Olympic Games and gaining entry and influence into global multilateral institutions. Issues like NATO expansion, the independence of Ukraine or Taiwan quickly become flashpoints — questions of status and identity.The world is now firmly in an era of social competition. It is a period of transition.