MLB predictions, picks, and odds for Texas Rangers at Houston Astros on October 22. MLB American League Championship Series 2023 free pick and best bets.
Framber Valdez was rock-solid for the Astros in the 2022 postseason, yet he's been anything but that this year. Our MLB betting picks will fade him once again with the Rangers looking to force Game 7.The Texas Rangers arrive in Houston on the verge of a massive collapse. That's because they've seen a 2-0 ALCS lead vanish before their eyes and now sit on the brink of elimination against the Houston Astros.
A bet on the Under is a bet on what the data on Valdez has told us. My projections priced this at 13.5, giving us a full out of value. This matchup against the Rangers is a tough one for Valdez. You're going to see a lot of breaking balls from Valdez, with the sinker and the curveball being used the most, and that's great news for Texas. The Rangers have the fourth-highest BABIP in the league against breaking balls. They excel against those pitches in particular, too.
In this spot, we have to listen to what past performances have told us. Valdez has struggled most of this postseason and faces a formidable lineup that will be desperate to keep their season alive. It's hard for me to see Valdez having much success in this spot when he's struggled mightily in much less pressurized situations in 2023.The first of those is Seager Over 1.5 total bases. He's been electric this postseason, and he has a great matchup today.
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