A couple of seats that looked like outliers in the 2019 election might actually have been political warning signs.
When it comes to explanations for the election result, we've heard it all. Like, really. Everything.Well, our secret ballot voting system means we can’t figure out how individuals or specific groups of people voted.
So the seats on the left of the chart are the least concerned about climate change, and those on the right are the most concerned.Think of them as markers to keep your bearings.We've added in the Coalition's two-candidate preferred vote in 2019 on the vertical axis. But looking across all the seats, it's hard to tell whether there's a pattern here, right? There are movements in both directions as we change years.change in Coalition voteThere's a bit going on here, so let's step through what this chart is telling us.
Electorates concerned about climate change did swing slightly more strongly against the Coalition than electorates with lower concern, but the relationship is fairly weak.change in Coalition vote between 2016 and 2019That means that the correlation between concern about climate change and swing away from the Coalition in 2019 was far more pronounced.
Outliers aside, the general trend is that regional seats swung towards the Coalition, while closer to the city there were small swings away.Similarly to the story on climate, the results were mixed. But the trend was the same — the Coalition vote was weaker in the city than in rural areas in 2022.OK, so you probably could have told us that the Coalition wasn't as popular in the inner city as in rural Australia.
The combinations of these three trends — climate, the regional divide, and a seeming lack of Coalition cut-through on the economy — helped hollow out the Liberal Party's heartland: affluent inner-city seats. What started with signals from two seats in 2019 became a teal wave in 2022. Labor's primary vote of 33 per cent at this year's election is the party's lowest since the 1930s. And they won the thing.
Looking at the chart of socio-economic trends above, Fowler sits towards the far left, compared to a teal seat like Goldstein towards the right — this suggests there are indeed very different groups of voters in the two seats.
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