Engineers working on hydrogen, evtols, UAM, vertiports, hypersonic passenger planes and synthetic fuels, I'm sorry your babies are ugly.
“The Gray Rhino is a metaphor for the threats that we can see and acknowledge yet do nothing about: the two ton thing that should be hard to ignore, but from which we look away even though it’s in our interest to get away before it charges. It may be pawing the ground, snorting, and getting ready to charge at you; or it may still be a ways up the road when you still have time to manage things before they become urgent.
, the Jetsons’ fantasy that has sucked so much useful money and talent out of the ecosystem with zero value likely to come out of it. No market to speak of, underfunded billion dollar decade-long certification paths and overly complex aircraft that they want to fly over children’s playgrounds. Having spent a lot of time working with technical and business intellectual capital, I feel comfortable in saying that there is none in this space worth investing in.
Synthetic fuels are more effective but much more expensive, and will always be more expensive than biofuels. Given the inevitable disruption of fueling with battery electric from below and stalk cellulosic biofuels, there is more than enough less expensive fuel than hydrogen or synthetics to replace fossil fuels. But it won’t be cheaper, so that will be weighing upon aviation demand.
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