If the unemployment rate rises slightly this month, it could mean a recession in October, according to a mathematical model that correctly signaled the 2020 recession. But economists are split about the likelihood of a recession this year. Here’s what you need to know.
This month, the Federal Reserve will determine whether to raise interest rates again following 11 hikes since last year in order to push inflation down to its 2% target range.. That could open the door for another interest rate hike this year, even if a pause follows in September.
"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has made it abundantly clear that the FOMC will not stop hiking interest rates until it has inflation under control and that its decisions remain data-dependent," Rust continued. "As such, a pause at a time when inflation has hit a 3-month high would seem strange.
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