As GOP candidates ready for their first debate, their positions on abortion will have a direct impact on interest-rate strategy and tax policy. Here's how.
Heading into the first Republican presidential primary debate, the party is split into four troupes: 1. the anti- but nonetheless Trump-obsessed ; 2. the Trump-alternatives ; 3. the shadow candidates megadonors hope will enter the race if Trump drops out ; and finally, 4. Donald Trump himself.The first two cohorts, who are primarily known for their social conservatism, will be on the debate stage in Milwaukee, while the latter two will not be there at all.
Republican megadonors aren’t secretly courting presidential alternatives because DeSantis isn’t great at retail politicking and Trump has been a drag on the Republican ticket, particularly in the Senate, since 2018. It’s because the Ohio referendum on abortion earlier this month drew three million voters, in August, to overwhelmingly reject the Republican platform.
At a minimum, three trillion dollars’ worth of tax changes are coming for individuals and corporations. Raise taxes and reduce deficit spending, and the Fed can potentially stop hiking interest rates. Cut taxes, as Trump famously championed the very day the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was enacted, and the Fed has to offset trillions in government spending. Every industry is exposed, from hedge funds and banks XLF to clean energy ICLN and cannabis MJ.
But instead of engaging in that debate, the candidates on the podium Wednesday will relive the same “To Trump or Not to Trump” cycle, which will keep conservatism and social issues front and center.
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