The Russian invasion of Ukraine has handicapped and crippled the economies of both those nations, but it has also indirectly given a significant boost to Saskatchewan in three ways.
First, since the beginning of this year, the sharp -25% drop in Russian potash exports has driven the world price of this essential agricultural fertilizer up by +178% from $202/ton to $562/ton, its highest level since mid-2008. Fuelled by this surge in price, Saskatchewan, with 30% of world reserves, has seen its exports of potash jump by +159% year to date. Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest potash producer, plans to ramp up its annual production to 18 million tons by 2025, a +40% increase.
Third, there’s been a recent announcement by the BHP Group that it plans to accelerate the construction of its Jansen potash mine which, when production begins in 2026, will be one of the largest in the world. The outlook for non-residential construction spending in Saskatchewan could also be supported by the CanPacific Albany Potash project, the Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Project, and the Saskatoon Freeway Project.
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