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” was fought on June 18th, 1815. The battle was a catastrophic defeat for the Napoleonic forces and marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Before that defeat, Napolean had a successful campaign of waging war in Europe.
Of course, higher asset prices boost consumer confidence, potentially keeping inflationary pressures elevated. Keeping a rate hike on the table keeps the options for the Federal Reserve open.However, the recent surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and tighter financial conditions more generally, means less need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further, as Jerome Powell noted yesterday.
Unless interest rates collapse substantially, which will only happen with the onset of a recession, the message from the Fed is becoming clear: The rate hiking regime is over.While the Fed is hopeful they can navigate a soft landing in the economy, such has historically never been the case. Higher interest rates, restrictive lending standards, and slower economic growth will result in a recession. The cracks in the economy are already becoming more abundant.
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