Florida’s governor has been widely heralded as the Republican candidate with the best shot at defeating Donald Trump. But the chances of a successful coup to overthrow the former president are growing slimmer by the day
nervously, the would-be assassins have been lining up. On May 22nd Tim Scott, a senator from South Carolina, became the latest Republican to announce a run for president. Greater fanfare will accompany the official declaration on May 24th that, the governor of Florida, is joining the race for the Republican nomination. He has been widely heralded as the candidate with the best chance of defeating the favourite, Donald Trump.
What is more, the Republican Party has been thoroughly Trumpified. This is especially true at the state level, where most of the rules for primaries are set. Unlike 2016, when the party establishment shunned Mr Trump, today he dominates the race for elite endorsements. Many big donors have defected to alternatives such as Mr DeSantis, but this is not as damaging as it sounds.
Early polls, it is true, do not predict the final results as well as later ones. But that does not mean they are useless. There is a correlation between early strength and the final results . At present, Mr Trump commands the support of almost 55% of primary voters according to a polling average constructed by FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit. That is more than 30 percentage points more than Mr DeSantis’s average.
Mr Trump’s team is assiduous. “Shortly after I got elected, the next day or a couple of days later, I received a voicemail from President Trump congratulating me,” says Mike Brown, the chairman of the Republican Party in Kansas. The Trump campaign has been “exceptional” in communicating about the primary in the state, he says.
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