Officials are debating whether Russia’s movement of material represents the next phase in a buildup that has already placed more than 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine
over the Ukraine crisis
If deployed near Ukraine, the officials and analysts said, the new materiel would reinforce the Kremlin’s options to use force—from large incursions to pinprick attacks—to try to weaken the pro-Western government in Kyiv, increase Russia’s control in eastern Ukraine, batter the country’s economy and prevent it from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Negotiations this week between Russia, the U.S., NATO and others failed to narrow the differences over that Kremlin proposal as well as a demand that the allianceThe U.S. and its allies have said they would respond to an invasion with unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia, stepped-up support for Ukraine’s defense and military reinforcements on NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia.
“That rough 100,000-troop figure could easily be augmented in a matter of a couple of weeks and evolve into something that’s large enough to launch a multipronged, full-throttle invasion of Ukraine,” said a senior State Department official, who declined to provide details. “It could be used to decoy and to engage in a more limited conventional operation. It could be used as part of a coercive diplomatic game.
A full-scale invasion and occupation of Ukraine, which has a population of 44 million, seems unlikely with Russia’s current level of forces, former officials and analysts said. Such a thrust could be used by the Kremlin to put pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and attempt to force concessions or perhaps try to bring about its collapse, former officials and analysts said.
The deployment of Russian and Ukrainian forces as of January 2022, shown on a map from a coming report by retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Dr. Phillip Karber. Ukrainian brigades in the west routinely rotate battalions to the front. Not all Russian units are fully manned, but are being filled out during the current buildup.
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