OPINION: The fundamental problem is that the Kremlin just does not understand how decentralised and bottom-up Ukrainian society has become.
through conventional military means. The insights from the Ukrainian and Russian observers – which ring very true given my own experience with both countries – suggest that Russian failure can be explained by the following.At the start of the war, there was concern that Ukraine was permeated by Russian intelligence operatives and that there were many pro-Russian elements within Ukraine who could undermine defence. In fact, it appears to be almost the other way around.
As a result, as the situation on the ground changes, the inability to adjust to the tactical situation leads to blunders.from the north is a prime example. One Russian observer describes it as the world’s first and biggest self-managed POW camp. In essence, the column is following a plan that relied on assumptions which quickly proved to be wrong.
Now, the way that Ukrainian society works makes perfect sense. They have lots of problems, but these are the kinds of problems free societies deal with, and they deal with them in the same way as any Western society would – through endless debate, criticism, annoying parliamentary manoeuvring and so on.This matters not just in terms of the Ukrainian motivation to fight, but what it takes to seize the country.
With Russia’s economy shrinking under sanctions and its target receiving a lot of aid, Ukraine simply has more financial resources to mobilise its population. Ukrainians involved in the conflict are better paid, which also leads to more motivation and better ability to look after their families.
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