Russia is expanding its use of “hybrid warfare” — including cyber attacks, border disruptions and disinformation campaigns — in a bid to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank, the Polish government’s top national security official warned on Tuesday.
With Moscow’s conventional military bogged down in Ukraine after 18 months of war, the Kremlin is increasingly bent on sowing regional chaos via unconventional tactics, said Jacek Siewiera, the head of Poland’s National Security Bureau.
“In Europe, in France, Spain in many other countries, if they are not facing hybrid threats right now, I’m sure that they cannot exclude it in the nearest future,” Mr. Siewiera told a group of international journalists visiting Poland on a trip sponsored by the Polish Foreign Ministry. “We assess that Belarus is nothing more than just a tool in the hands of Russians,” Gen. Wieslaw M. Kukula, the commander general of Poland’s Armed Forces said Tuesday.
With Mr. Prigozhin gone, it is unclear who will take command of the mercenaries, battle-hardened after it took a major role in the fighting in neighboring Ukraine. In 2013, the general published a journal article now widely considered the strategic foundation for the Kremlin’s subversion policies in the years since. The “Gerasimov Doctrine of Hybrid Warfare” blends conventional and unconventional warfare, essentially expanding military battlefield options infinitely — including into cyberspace.
Apart from the current border tensions, Polish security officials there is no doubt Russia is driving the hybrid warfare campaign, and that a range of other tactics are already being used inside Poland, the key staging ground for much of the NATO equipment being provided to Ukraine.
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