The Fed minutes from the September meeting reiterate that policymakers remain resolute on the need to make monetary policy more restrictive. The S&P 500 pushes into positive territory but bullish momentum is weak. All eyes on CPI tomorrow.
The document’s hawkish tone suggests that the bank is prioritizing its fight against inflation over economic growth and, therefore, may be prepared to deliver another supersized 75 basis point hike at its November gathering if conditions warrant further front-loaded action.
Investors and traders will have a clearer picture of what to expect in terms of monetary policy tomorrow after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the. Annual headline inflation is forecast to moderate to 8.1% from 8.3%, but the core gauge is seen accelerating to 6.5% from 6.3% previously, matching the cycle’s high set in March.
For sentiment to recover and stocks to mount a meaningful recovery, the data has to surprise on the downside in a way that reduces pressure on the Fed to step up the pace of rate rises. In-line or above-estimate numbers could unleash a sell-off on Wall Street, as happened last month, whenImmediately after the Fed minutes crossed the wires, the S&P 500 pushed higher into positive territory, as the summarized record of the last FOMC meeting failed to deliver any new hawkish bombshells.
100 on the back of rapidly slowing economic activity, rising borrowing costs and heightened financial risks, but we should have a better idea of the near-term trend tomorrow after analyzing the September CPI numbers.
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