Scotland will become a key battleground for the next General Election - and Labour knows it ginadavidsonlbc
Since the independence referendum of 2014 there has been an election of sorts every year, 2018 and 2020 aside, with Scots going to the polls for Westminster, Holyrood and council elections - not forgetting the Brexit vote.
Undoubtedly, Labour had a good election, the Conservatives did not. Similarly the Liberal Democrats have seen their vote share improve, and the Green Party too has also had a real boost. Labour has known for some time that Scotland will be a key battleground in the forthcoming campaign. It’s not for nothing that Starmer has headed north on a number of occasions in recent months.
Certainly the poll trends have seen Labour close the gap with the SNP to just three percentage points, with suggestions that Labour could win around 20 MPs. It would be a sea change in Scottish politics, and those numbers - as well as those picked up in Wales - could well see Labour get over the line with a majority.
But… if previous SNP voters, currently being swayed towards Labour, believe that a hung parliament with a minority Labour government is a potential outcome - and this will be exactly the picture the SNP paints - they could well just stick with Yousaf’s party. For Scots who want that above all else, it would be a no brainer to stick with the SNP. Similarly, despite the Tories’ terrible results on Friday, in Scotland the threat that a minority Labour government could result in a second independence referendum could well see Tory voters, potentially flirting with Labour when talking to pollsters, instead stick to their guns and vote for Sunak’s party.
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