AFL: The Brisbane Lions have held on for an emphatic victory against the top of the table Swans in an epic back-and-forth battle at the Gabba.
With the Swans still on top and the Bulldogs barking, it’s beginning to look a lot like 2016 - which is bad news for Essendon, too.Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. If it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom - and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them . If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can predict anyway.Second Qualifying Final :is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents.
Turns out you do need a backup ruckman. Another poor loss to Fremantle did major damage to the Demons’ percentage, almost putting them in Hawthorn territory where they’d need 14 wins to avoid missing out on that crucial tiebreaker. Either way, it’s going to come down to the Dees’ three remaining MCG games; you wouldn’t be confident in this team beating the hot Dogs or the Suns away right now.
Qualifying Final Remaining Games Max Laughton Hawks Young Gun Reigning Premiers St Kilda Hawthorn Hawks Home Elimination Final Finals Place Elimination Final Gold Coast Suns Finals Race Chris Scott Play Finals Ladder Order Gold Coast Remaining Fixture Advantages Teams Chris Fagan Victoria Predicted Win Totals West Coast Eagles Runner-Up Hangover The Gabba Breathing Room Craig Mcrae Luke Beveridge Garry Lyon Coast Eagles Projected Wins Three-Game Winning Streak Michael Voss Finals Bracketing Works Percentage Dictates Checks Notes Top-Eight Contenders Richmond Tigers Emphatic Victory Wins Heading Striking Distance Port Adelaide Finals Spot Adem Yze Final Fortnight Adelaide Crows Oceania South Australia Double Chance Predicted Ladder Sydney Swans Weird Stuff Jarrod Schofield Collingwood Magpies Geelong Cats Brisbane Lions Early-Season Premiership Fancies Multiple Wins Damien Hardwick Ken Hinkley Mini-Elimination Final Australia And New Zealand Run Home Jack Ginnivan John Longmire St Kilda Saints Brilliant Comeback Adam Kingsley Matthew Nicks Western Bulldogs Mars Stadium Top-Four Shake-Up Concussion Protocol Confident Tip Sam Mitchell Australia
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