In a sign of further gains, investors are more hopeful about stocks over fixed income than at any point since SentimenTrader models began comparing them.
| All the chatter back in December was that 2023 was to be the “year of the bond”. And for a brief moment or two in the first quarter, that call – and the economic doom-and-gloom that underpinned it – looked right.
Instead, the economy seems to have pulled off a rare feat: inflation has slowed while new jobs are being created. Growth keeps accelerating and even staff at the US central bank are no longer forecasting a recession. The Fed is still raising rates – though it may have just completed its last increase this week – and bonds are not living up their billing as a safety valve.
It is not like predictions that bonds would win this year have been entirely wrong – across the curve they have posted positive returns and investors are collecting big yields for little risk. It is just that equities have posted once-unimaginable gains this year – the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up 44 per cent – that has juiced their relative performance in ways that have blindsided Wall Street pros.And while the soft-landing scenario is now the market’s favourite, it is by no means certain.
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