The long-feared economic downturn still hasn’t materialized. Inflation is slowing and the unemployment rate is near 50-year lows. Here are four reasons it has been so difficult for economists to get a handle on what’s happening.
The recession warnings began in early 2022, when inflation was surging, the economy was shrinking and consumers were feeling glum.
But more than a year in, the long-feared economic downturn still hasn’t materialized. The economy has continued to grow. Inflation is slowing and the unemployment rate is near 50-year lows. Yet, fresh data released Thursday shows that economic growth slowed markedly at the beginning of the year, to an annual rate of 1.1 percent from 2.6 percent in the previous quarter.Experts are divided on whether the country is in for a recession — likely a mild one — or whether it may be able to avoid one altogether in the coming months. Many say we’re at a pivotal moment, as we wait to see just how dramatically the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases will ripple through the economy.
Why has it been so difficult for economists to get a handle on what’s happening? Here are four factors muddling the outlook.
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