The case is morally compelling – but it might leave Ukraine less able to sustain stable economic growth
at Davos this year: “If the aggressor loses everything, then it definitely deprives him of his motivation to start a war.”
Security guarantees are as vital for economic recovery as they are for the safety of Ukraine’s population. Official aid can’t finance the economy forever; private investment will be required. But foreign investment won’t flow in if security is uncertain. Indeed, Ukrainians themselves won’t invest, either.
The west can strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend itself by giving it more powerful weapons. But as long as Russia is nuclear-armed and Ukraine is not, the strategic balance will be tilted. Afrom the US and the EU could counter this Russian advantage, but the west is reluctant – not without reason – to bear the risks.
The only durable solution is a Russia reconciled to Ukraine’s political independence and territorial integrity. And reparations are the last thing needed to achieve that. They would mean additional hardship for a Russian population already experiencing hardship. With the economy on course toRussia risks shading into appeasement. And under no circumstances should Russian President Vladimir Putin be rewarded for his aggression. But there is also the opposite risk. Russia must recognise the political and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Punishing it further in the course of peace negotiations will not make this easier. We want future Russian governments to respect international norms. Invoking those norms to extract every pound of flesh will not make achieving this more likely.