Analysis: Six months on, Ukraine is losing the war with Russia | Anthony Galloway
Every week, I look at a map of Ukraine showing areas now controlled by Russia. There are roads and towns in the eastern Donbas region where I was able to freely walk and drive around two months ago that are now under Russian occupation.You may read regularly about some new shipment of weapons which will help Ukraine turn the tide in the east, or mount a major counter-offensive in the south. But it hasn’t happened yet.
It is true that Russian troops have made no significant territorial gains since they took the eastern city of Lysychansk and hence full control of it on July 2,But Russia did order a two-week operational pause to solidify its gains after taking Lysychansk, and it has now mounted a withering assault on the nearby city of Siversk.
This probably hasn’t sunk in for many Australians. Because it was roughly at the time when Putin started shifting his strategy that interest in the war dropped off., much of it in or near front-line positions in the east, my only prediction is this: the war has a long way to go yet. This is because both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are many more anniversaries away from achieving their goals.
So we are left with an almost stalemate in which Putin advances centimetre by centimetre in the east and Ukraine tries to mount a counter-offensive in the south to take back the key port city of Kherson.Peace, if we can call it that, will probably look something like this: Ukraine gives up everything it didn’t control before February 24 this year, and Russia withdraws from everywhere else.
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