Aemo reports that Victoria’s total available gas supply will drop by 48% from 2024 to 2028
In its annual gas statement of opportunities report, the Aemo said “small seasonal supply gaps” may emerge from 2026 with the shortages becoming annual ones from 2028 unless additional supplies are developed. Regions affected include New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT.
Still, with two-thirds of east coast gas production earmarked for exports, mostly from Queensland, domestic demand will have to decline at a faster rate to avoid gaps in later years. Alternatively, more supplies will be needed or more gas piped southwards. “From 2028, supply gaps will increase in size as Bass Strait production falls significantly,” he said, noting the offshore fields had historically supplied two-thirds of southern Australia’s gas.Gas shortage forecasts have been a feature of the annual Aemo reports for the past decade, with the market operator seeking to identify gaps that then get addressed.
Bowen, though, is familiar with the risks facing energy supplies.
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