Astronomers say the damage from 2024 YR4 would be catastrophic if it hit a city. But for now, experts say, calm is warranted.
Just after Christmas Day, astronomers spotted something zipping away from Earth: a rock somewhere between 39 metres and 100 metres long that they named 2024 YR4. Over the next few weeks, they simulated its possible future orbits. They now say, based on the most up-to-date information, that there is a 1.3 per cent chance that this asteroid will strike somewhere on Earth on December 22, 2032.
For now, experts say, calm is warranted. The asteroid has been spotted several years before its close shave with Earth – and that’s a good thing.“The international systems we’re putting in place to find, track and characterise – and, if it comes to it, mitigate the impacts of – hazardous asteroids and comets are working as intended,” said Andy Rivkin, an astronomer and planetary defence researcher at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland.
The Torino Scale is a tool for communicating how concerned the public and policymakers should be about an asteroid. It ranges from 0 to 10 . The same story will probably unfold with 2024 YR4. “The most likely outcome is that further observations will rule out an impact,” Rankin said.
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