Scientists expect the 3 tons of space junk from a leftover rocket will carve out a hole 33 feet to 66 feet across and send moon dust flying across its surface.
The leftover rocket will smash into the far side of the moon at 5,800 mph on Friday, away from telescopes’ prying eyes. It may take weeks, even months, to confirm the impact through satellite images.
Low-orbiting space junk is relatively easy to track. Objects launching deeper into space are unlikely to hit anything and these far-flung pieces are usually soon forgotten, except by a handful of observers who enjoy playing celestial detective on the side. But there were two Chinese missions with similar designations — the test flight and 2020′s lunar sample return mission — and U.S. observers believe the two are getting mixed up.
Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics supports Gray’s revised assessment but notes: "The effect will be the same. It’ll leave yet another small crater on the moon." JPL’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies endorses Gray’s reassessment. A University of Arizona team also recently identified the Chinese Long March rocket segment from the light reflected off its paint, during telescope observations of the careening cylinder.Gray said SpaceX never contacted him to challenge his original claim. Neither have the Chinese.
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