Could it be fourth time lucky for Spain? Polling suggests no obvious path out of political deadlock
churches and El Greco paintings, the medieval city of Toledo has succumbed to mass tourism. But the surrounding province is a representative slice of modern Spain, from dormitory exurbs of Madrid to struggling industrial towns along the Tagus valley and rolling hills of vineyards and olive groves. It is also the kind of place where Spain’s general election on November 10th—the fourth in as many years—will be decided.
In April he managed to make the vote about his chosen issues of creating a fairer society in the wake of Spain’s economic slump of 2008-13 and stopping Vox, a new far-right nationalist party. That prompted a high turnout of 76%, which tends to favour the left. This time is different.
Such disorder, and the threat of secession in Catalonia, benefits the right elsewhere in Spain. Polls now suggest the Socialists might get slightly fewer seats than in April. The conservative People’s Party , which governed from 2011 until Mr Sánchez ousted it in a censure motion in 2018, is set to improve on its poor result in April. Its leader, Pablo Casado, having veered right in the spring, has grown a beard and moved back towards the centre.
The election is unusually open and the polls hard to read. Turnout is likely to fall. Three parties—Podemos, Ciudadanos and Vox—are clustered between 9% and 14%. In many less populated provinces the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Take Toledo. Long monopolised by theand the Socialists, since 2015, Toledo has been a four- and this year a five-way fight. On November 10th Ciudadanos looks set to lose the seat it won in April, though to whom is not clear.
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