Squeezing one last drop from Big Oil: The great climate debate shaking Australia’s energy sector

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Squeezing one last drop from Big Oil: The great climate debate shaking Australia’s energy sector
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A dark cloud hangs over the energy sector as it faces a climate change reckoning. But some are convinced there is money to be made as the world recovers from COVID-19.

Not long ago, the only pressure for oil and gas companies to clean up their act came from the protests outside their office towers. Next it was at their investor meetings, from activists taking over question time or lobbying for larger emissions cuts. These, too, could often be ignored. But now, the winds of change are blowing in boardrooms.

The shock is reverberating industry wide. And for Australia – as one of the world’s biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas – the implications could be severe. “Anyone who tries to go for a final investment decision on a new field in this year, 2021, needs their head looked at,” Bourne says. “There are too many things monotonically taking us toward a geopolitical effort to decarbonise really fast.”

“The fact of the matter is oil and gas is probably the number one thing that has improved living conditions around the world since the history of humankind.”While he has noticed more Tesla electric cars on the roads, Fromm, who manages more than $886 million in a global resources fund, says this has not translated to falling demand for oil.

While oil and gas companies have become increasingly taboo to own, the fund’s chief investment officer Simon Mawhinney believes current share prices are out of joint with their value. “Clearly the commodity is structurally challenged on a longer-term basis, there is no question about that whatsoever,” he says. “But in the neartime, we see one last bull cycle.”“Clearly the commodity is structurally challenged on a longer term basis, there is no question about that whatsoever. But in the neartime, we see one last bull cycle.”At investment bank UBS, head of Australian energy and utilities equity research Tom Allen has a “buy” rating on the entire local energy sector.

Andrew McConville, chief executive of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, says that the IEA’s latest modelling related only to one possible scenario out of about 90, and should be taken with a “grain of salt”. On whether it’s a “watershed moment”, opinions are mixed. But either way – as Michael Irving, a senior executive at Australian gas pipeliner Jemena, explains – last month showed the “wave has started to break”.

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