'Fundamentals still matter': A portfolio manager at a firm managing $17 billion warns stocks are due to sink 15% as AI hype fuels the current rally and drowns out recession alarm bells
But the rally isn't likely to last, warns Rayliant's Phillip Wool.Stocks are once again in a bull marketPhillip Wool, a portfolio manager at $17 billion asset management firm Rayliant, would add four letters to that description:"Stocks are in a bull@#$! market," he wrote in a June 12 note to clients, the censors his.
Looking at the Wilshire 5000 index, Wool highlighted that money is more concentrated in top stocks than during the dot-com bubble a little over two decades ago. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. According to research from LPL Financial, when 0-48% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading below their 200-day moving averages like is the situation currently, the index's returns are usually negative over the following one-, three-, six-, and 12-month periods.The excitement that has pulled some traders off the sidelines and driven the market upwards has Wool worried that investors have forgotten about recession warnings.
Still, some see a soft landing scenario ahead for the economy. The labor market continues to impress, with the US economy adding 339,000 jobs in May, well above expectations. Inflation has also fallen to 4%, prompting the Fed to pause its rate hike campaign this week. , traders assign nearly a 75% to the Fed hiking another 25 basis points at its July meeting.Where stocks go from here
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