Study reviews human judgment ensemble during Omicron BA.1 wave in the USA medrxivpreprint UVA Omicron Variant COVID19 SARSCoV2
By Neha MathurOct 18 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers demonstrated how well human judgment systems could complement computational models in responding to the rapidly evolving coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
Human judgment systems have emerged as a robust complementary approach to model-driven epidemiological forecasting. An early interactive platform based on human judgment systems predicted trajectories of an ongoing influenza season one to four weeks into the future . Although difficult to scale and operationalize, this method performed among the best among other computational models.
Furthermore, the team modified some forecasting questions between the two phases of the study - the surge phase and the decline phase. In addition, they elicited multiple forecast horizons for each variable to compare forecast uncertainty over time. The current study was undertaken in collaboration with the Virginia Department of Health.