The upcoming federal election in Australia is shaping up to be a tight contest, with a number of crucial suburban and regional seats likely to determine the outcome.
A swathe of outer suburban and regional seats in NSW and Victoria will likely shape who wins the looming federal election. Within weeks, if not months, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will send voters to the polls for a federal election. Earlier in his first term, gaining a second seemed likely but the combination of soaring inflation, a failed referendum and a war in the Middle East has made it much more complicated.
Albanese heads to the polls facing a frontline bigger than his Liberal predecessor Scott Morrison, with Labor candidates across the country facing serious threats from Liberals, Greens and independents. The ABC has talked with party insiders and analysed polling data to assess the seats that will likely shape the election outcome.It's a mug's game to claim to know when the election will be held, largely because picking the date is one of a prime minister's few unilateral powers. Conventional wisdom suggests the PM is likely to call an election after WA's state poll. Calling it weeks after that would mean the government would hand down the early budget it has slated for. Assuming there's no early budget, it leaves one date, something of a goldilocks period, that squeezes in between WA and the April public holidays and is considered most likely among politicians and political observers. Assuming the PM gives the victor of the WA election one day to celebrate, it would mean he'd set off to visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn seeking an election, with the writs issued that very day. If the PM presses on with a budget, he's left with just three options all of which would be interrupted by Easter and Anzac Day.Political observers estimate the opposition will need around half a dozen gains in Victoria if it wants to govern in majority. The state has become something of hostile territory to federal Liberals, with Labor reaching a high-water mark at the last election. Melbourne's outer eastern and northern suburbs might not be Labor's most marginal seats but they're among the most vulnerable, with living costs savaging household budgets. If Labor loses a seat like Hawke, it will have much bigger problems on its hands. Highlighting Labor's electoral woes in Victoria, the party will face serious threats from the Greens in the inner-north Melbourne electorate of. The latter will again be a hotly contested three-corner contest where the flow of preferences will likely determine the outcome. Post-redistribution, Labor's margin against the Greens is just. Australia's most populated state presents a mixed bag of electoral fortunes, but like Victoria, offers few fortunes for Labor. Sydney's mortgage belt was once home to some of Labor's safest seats. Add in the Middle East conflict and Labor is facing a series of issues across the west and south-west. This includes the seat of Richmond, which sits alongside the Queensland border. Changing demographics in the coastal electorate, which is home to Byron Bay, have changed the electoral fortunes of a once conservative heartland seat. Labor's margin against the Greens in Richmond is now just. It was largely the Coalition that faced the community independent campaigns that delivered teals to the federal parliament in 2022. But this time, Labor too will face a similar movement, particularly in western Sydney, where dissatisfaction has festered following Labor's response to the war in Gaza
AUSTRALIA FEDERAL ELECTION LABOR PARTY LIBERAL PARTY GREENS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES POLITICAL OBSERVERS REDISTRIBUTION CAMPAIGN VOTING MARGINS POLLS WAR IN GAZA
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