Current polling discourages any other candidate from entering the race, writes MichaelBarone. Can GovRonDeSantis win a one-on-one race against Donald Trump? Current polling tells me the answer is, sure he could.
Republicans who remain supporters of the 45th president point to data showing he remains popular among his party’s voters. They also recall how loudly heralded attempts to deprive him of his first nomination, in 2016, foundered.
Democrats certainly don’t want to depend on the popularity of Joe Biden or his policies. And who else do they have to run? To which two things must be added. The first is that this is based on the responses of a minority of the 849 registered voters whom NYT-Siena interviewed. Margins of error in samples this small are pretty large.
The second thing that should be added to the Times-Siena results and in support of Bender’s spin is that state polls are showing Trump with less than solid majority support from Republicans. Florida is the one state where voters have equal substantive knowledge of both candidates. There, a Victory Insights survey of 600 Republican primary voters polled July 13-14 showed DeSantis with 51% of the vote and 33% for Trump. When pressed to say which candidate they leaned toward, it was DeSantis, 61% to 39%. An early July survey of 656 Florida Republicans by Blueprint Polling similarly found DeSantis leading Trump 51% to 39%.
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