An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
LOCAL - NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA - POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM IAN - BASESD ON THE *CURRENT* FORECAST PATH: * Tropical moisture surging north ahead of Ian should start to bring some showers, isolated t’storms from south to north through the day Wed. This will start to saturate the already wet ground across the area potentially leading to flooding issues Thu./Fri. as heavy Ian rain bands move across the area & potentially “train” across some areas. The saturated soil may also lead to trees being more easily uprooted by winds that otherwise would not be much of a problem.
The global forecast models still present a serious conundrum with a wide spray of where the storm might go in relation to Florida though not as wide as previous days. The difference is roughly 200-300 miles between the GFS & European when it comes to a hit on Florida. & it’s very much worth mentioning that the GFS *has been* leading the charge so far on accuracy, especially as it relates to location & the longer westward movement.
data collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week If Ian remains weaker & more shallow, it will be steered more by low level winds vs. the deep tropospheric flow.
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