Years before the climate crisis was part of national discourse, this memo to the president predicted catastrophe
n 1977 Star Wars hit movie theaters, New York City had a blackout that lasted 25 hours, and the Apple II personal computer went up for sale. It was also the year that a remarkable one-page memo was circulated at the very highest levels of US government.
One of the first thing that stands out is the stamp at the top, partially elided, saying THE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN. Fossil fuel combustion has increased at an exponential rate over the last 100 years. As a result, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now 12 percent above the pre-industrial revolution level and may grow to 1.5 to 2.0 times that level within 60 years. Because of the “greenhouse effect” of atmospheric CO2 the increased concentration will induce a global climatic warming of anywhere from 0.5 to 5°C.
Natural dissipation of C02 would not occur for a millennium after fossil fuel combustion was markedly reduced.. Scientists used to believe that some warming was “baked in”, but scientists have since found that as soon as CO2 emissions stop rising, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 levels off and slowly falls.
The authoritative National Academy of Sciences has just alerted us that it will issue a public statement along these lines in a few weeks.