As younger Australians in cities increasingly decide who governs, they will earn the right politically to also decide what taxes they pay and what services they fund.
The IGR offers a number of ways to measure the ageing crunch but leans towards the worker-to-retiree and taxpayer-to-retiree ratios. Politicians have trouble translating these figures into policy action because they don’t seem all that scary in the short-to-medium term.
What the national projection conceals are the key differences between the capitals and the regions today. Regional NSW and Victoria, and all of South Australia and Tasmania, are already in the grey zone. They have more retirees than children. Here’s the catch-22 for the regions. As the career paths they offer their workers are narrowed by rising demand for aged care and other services, the incentives for young people to leave town for the city increase.
Tilting the policy scales towards the young will not be without pain. Buried in the IGR is the startling detail that governments on both sides have actively reduced the share of households that pay income tax, ensuring an even greater load on the next generation than if governments had done nothing.
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