OPINION: Australia’s new submarines will enter a region even more competitive and congested than it is today – and likely to have produced a few more surprises.
Much of the commentary about the AUKUS partnership since it was announced a year ago on Thursday has focused on when and if Australia will see nuclear-powered submarines in service.Given the distant timeline, many strategists have instead turned their focus to AUKUS’s second pillar on advanced defence capabilities which will be the main deliverables for this decade. With projects on autonomous systems and, this trilateral collaboration will be consequential for tomorrow’s battlefield.
In 1987, the United States was the region’s undisputed hegemon and no great power rival was on the horizon. The Soviet Union would collapse shortly afterwards. China was still emerging from years of instability. India’s economy was on par with Australia’s. Thirty-five years later, the strategic environment is radically different.
A few things can nonetheless be predicted with some measure of confidence. For one, Australia will be a very different country by the 2050s. We will be a bigger country, with 30 to 40 million people, and a more culturally and demographically diverse country. throughout the technological revolution in military affairs. Under sea warfare remains a critical strength for the United States and its allies, both in the Indo-Pacific and globally.
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